I was in Sweden on the Montega trip. I saw the printers, I saw the dozemeters being printed, I saw the printing company packaging it and sending it to customers. I saw the parcels. The company is incredibly lean. The production, packaging and transportation is all done by the printing company. Intellego has its team that tests every batch. Impressive.
Great read. One thing I disagree with is “Intellego comes up with the science to do it better themselves.” - they have zero r&d expense I find it unlikely
Also you say the receivables are secured by ekn which is fine but if non are collected (clients don’t pay) they won’t get new receivables secured so it is still a risk until we know definitively they managed to get paid
With the news of the new COO—coming from a very small company and with a background more in finance than operations—combined with all the missed opportunities management has had to improve communication, I’ve reached my limit with the headaches this company has caused.
Right now, our exposure is just 1.44%, and I prefer to focus on safer, more transparent opportunities. We first discovered Intellego at 25 SEK and sold at 76.7 SEK, an excellent profit in just under a year. Despite everything, it’s been a great trade overall.
I still don’t believe the company is a fraud, but management’s lack of communication and execution makes it increasingly difficult to justify a bullish stance. Today’s share price reaction was mild, but in my opinion, the news was quite negative.
I also want to acknowledge my mistake of being too bullish in the past. I defended the company against what I still believe were largely false accusations, but at this point, the management’s actions (or lack thereof) speak louder than any defense I could make.
This has been stressful, but every experience is a lesson. Even if the model portfolio takes a small hit, I’ve made solid gains personally from having entered early.
I’ll continue to improve, work harder, and keep bringing you the same deep research and thoughtful analysis you’ve come to expect. Thank you all for your trust and support.
If you believe you are protected because Deloitte is the auditor and they have done a forensic review you are potentially in for a rude awakening. Many frauds have had a Big Four auditor that signed off until the end. See for instance Wirecard. I’m not saying there is fraud here just that refuting the bear points by pointing to a Big auditor has not worked out well in many cases. I also did not understand the argument with the Yuvio devices. Are these sold to customer? If they would have been accounted for as inventory the margins would potentially looked much worse.
Regarding the accounting its not only Deloitte, is the new external CFO, investors who participated in previous placements and EKN. It is true that as I mentioned there is never 0% risk of nothing, it could be a fraud and claes would be a massive genius in fraud haha. In inventories, its true EBIT would be lower, but it would be just a one off leading to higher margins long term and the business would look more capital light, however I think it is not wrong to account them as CAPEX
The concern looking at the first half results is that accounts receivable as a % of sales is still very large. The numbers imply that it would take about 6 months or more to collect from customers which is the same as the previous year.
The net cash generated essentially came from better inventory management and rights issue/ new issue monies raised.
I am a significant shareholder. Haven't sold any at all . In fact I bought a little bit more.
Perhaps the CEO can help reiterate the company 's working capital ( receivables) management because debtors as a % of revenue has hardly improved
The key thing looking at recievables as I mentioned is the fact that if they are effectively assured, they are a perfectly valid tool to grow their market share, in that front I would not see any major problem, if a big impairment of those recievables ended up happening it would be a big problem.
TAM is undeniably large, but the key issue is the lack of concrete data on real demand. How many hospitals are actually equipped with UV robots and using dosimeters now?
Perhaps it is time to come out of hiding when the share price falls by 70%. Were your forecasts for the company merely illusory or fundamentally sound? At present, I am no longer sure.
An excellent piece of thorough research. Small companies like this can be very volatile. Do we know if much real selling is going on or is this just an absence of buyers?
I was in Sweden on the Montega trip. I saw the printers, I saw the dozemeters being printed, I saw the printing company packaging it and sending it to customers. I saw the parcels. The company is incredibly lean. The production, packaging and transportation is all done by the printing company. Intellego has its team that tests every batch. Impressive.
Thanks for sharing it, also know people that went
From what you saw, would you be able to estimate the volume shipped per day? And does anybody know the average selling price wholesale?
What is the name of the printing company?
I don’t get the valuation vs growth, screaming buy
Great read. One thing I disagree with is “Intellego comes up with the science to do it better themselves.” - they have zero r&d expense I find it unlikely
Also you say the receivables are secured by ekn which is fine but if non are collected (clients don’t pay) they won’t get new receivables secured so it is still a risk until we know definitively they managed to get paid
Thanks for thorough review!
With the news of the new COO—coming from a very small company and with a background more in finance than operations—combined with all the missed opportunities management has had to improve communication, I’ve reached my limit with the headaches this company has caused.
Right now, our exposure is just 1.44%, and I prefer to focus on safer, more transparent opportunities. We first discovered Intellego at 25 SEK and sold at 76.7 SEK, an excellent profit in just under a year. Despite everything, it’s been a great trade overall.
I still don’t believe the company is a fraud, but management’s lack of communication and execution makes it increasingly difficult to justify a bullish stance. Today’s share price reaction was mild, but in my opinion, the news was quite negative.
I also want to acknowledge my mistake of being too bullish in the past. I defended the company against what I still believe were largely false accusations, but at this point, the management’s actions (or lack thereof) speak louder than any defense I could make.
This has been stressful, but every experience is a lesson. Even if the model portfolio takes a small hit, I’ve made solid gains personally from having entered early.
I’ll continue to improve, work harder, and keep bringing you the same deep research and thoughtful analysis you’ve come to expect. Thank you all for your trust and support.
— Hugo
If you believe you are protected because Deloitte is the auditor and they have done a forensic review you are potentially in for a rude awakening. Many frauds have had a Big Four auditor that signed off until the end. See for instance Wirecard. I’m not saying there is fraud here just that refuting the bear points by pointing to a Big auditor has not worked out well in many cases. I also did not understand the argument with the Yuvio devices. Are these sold to customer? If they would have been accounted for as inventory the margins would potentially looked much worse.
Regarding the accounting its not only Deloitte, is the new external CFO, investors who participated in previous placements and EKN. It is true that as I mentioned there is never 0% risk of nothing, it could be a fraud and claes would be a massive genius in fraud haha. In inventories, its true EBIT would be lower, but it would be just a one off leading to higher margins long term and the business would look more capital light, however I think it is not wrong to account them as CAPEX
The concern looking at the first half results is that accounts receivable as a % of sales is still very large. The numbers imply that it would take about 6 months or more to collect from customers which is the same as the previous year.
The net cash generated essentially came from better inventory management and rights issue/ new issue monies raised.
I am a significant shareholder. Haven't sold any at all . In fact I bought a little bit more.
Perhaps the CEO can help reiterate the company 's working capital ( receivables) management because debtors as a % of revenue has hardly improved
The key thing looking at recievables as I mentioned is the fact that if they are effectively assured, they are a perfectly valid tool to grow their market share, in that front I would not see any major problem, if a big impairment of those recievables ended up happening it would be a big problem.
Do we know if all those receivables are assured or only part of them?
According to 2024 annual report, "date of this report, a total of approximately SEK 80 million has been secured."
Date of report was about 2025 mid Q2, so estimated AR was 350 MSEK out of which 80 MSEK were assured.
TAM is undeniably large, but the key issue is the lack of concrete data on real demand. How many hospitals are actually equipped with UV robots and using dosimeters now?
Maybe so, but there are lots of such UV test cards being sold on Amazon, eBay, Temu, AliExpress, etc. - seems they aren’t that difficult to produce.
What if they were doing round-tripping/circular sales and that was the reason receivables were growing that much?
I was a victim of that with another company.
How did it end in that case?
Bad 👎
Do you mind sharing which was the company?
I only recently subscribed but feel like I missed the boat on this one even after the pullback!
Perhaps it is time to come out of hiding when the share price falls by 70%. Were your forecasts for the company merely illusory or fundamentally sound? At present, I am no longer sure.
An excellent piece of thorough research. Small companies like this can be very volatile. Do we know if much real selling is going on or is this just an absence of buyers?
Lots of people who do not understand the company selling, retail, recent buyers, etc.
Hi Hugo - as a subscriber I am a bit concerned I might not be viewing all your updates. Is there one area that you post subscriber information?
Thanks James
In the substack chat I have added some remarks