Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Maksim's avatar

Hi Hugo, thank you for the analysis. I got interested as well and decided to dig deeper.

What do you think about their performance in the aftermath of financial crisis? It seems they were hit pretty hard in the slowdown - their EPS was negative for 3-4 years. And they could recover only after 5-6 years. Seems to be a cyclical stock. It's quite dangerous to buy cyclical when things look good (they started looking a bit worse now, but are still fine).

Another point is that they have kind of a "one-shot" product in my opinion. When somebody buys such a machine, he normally does not need a next one for quite some time (maybe never?) Somero constantly needs to find new customers not just to grow, but to keep the current level of earnings/revenues. Just look at the numbers in their presentation (H1 2024) - they show that new customers represented 18% and 43% in Europe and Australia respectively. And even with such a big growth in new customer they still experienced a slowdown/stagnation in both regions.

What is your take on these points?

Expand full comment
Philip Grayson's avatar

Thanks for this excellent analysis Hugo. Do you have any insight into management succession, in view of 77yr old CEO?

Expand full comment
5 more comments...

No posts