Monopoly Trading at 4.5× EBITDA, Set to Double Revenues with 6.5% Dividend Yield
Your Rare Chance to Capture a Monopoly at a Deep Discount
What if you could buy a strategic asset at the heart of one of the world’s busiest trade corridors for just 4.5 × EV/EBITDA—an asset that already has an approved expansion plan set to double revenue and more than double EBITDA, all while holding a near-monopoly on serving one of Europe’s fastest-growing regions?
With a market cap of 320 million euros, 119 million in net cash, this company is too cheap to ignore.
In this report we dive into Thessaloniki Port Authority—a markedly undervalued company that controls a world-class harbour, has a proven record of organic growth, and now enjoys the green light for a highly lucrative investment programme that will lift both margins and profits. You won’t find a sell-side note or Substack deep-dive on this name, so stay tuned.
Our valuation, even on conservative assumptions, puts fair value about 160 % above the current share price, with several catalysts that could drive further upside.
Less than a year ago we highlighted a similar opportunity in another Greek port; that call is already up +67.8 % with remarkably low volatility. Thessaloniki starts at the same multiple but boasts far stronger growth prospects—so we believe its rerating could be even more dramatic.
1. Introduction:
Commanding the north-western corner of the Thermaic Gulf, the Port of Thessaloniki sits just one kilometre from the city’s main rail hub and within 16 km of “Macedonia” International Airport, making it the natural maritime gateway for northern Greece and the faster-growing markets of the southern Balkans. Its deep-water quays and seamless road-rail links channel the bulk of North Macedonia’s seaborne trade and substantial flows to Bulgaria and Serbia, positioning the port—as Eastern Europe expands at an expected 2–2.5 % a year—as the most efficient springboard for cargo bound for the interior of the continent. Recognising that strategic value, the Greek State converted the port authority into a listed company in 2001 and, after a competitive tender led by the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund, sold a 67 % stake in 2018 (at a 346 million dollar valuation, 50% higher than the current EV) to the South Europe Gateway Thessaloniki consortium (Deutsche Invest, Terminal Link and Belterra Investments). The deal—backed by a concession running to 2051 and a binding €180 million investment plan to extend container Pier 6 and modernise equipment—shifted Thessaloniki from a state-run utility to a privately steered logistics hub poised to capture the next wave of Balkan trade growth.
The analysis that follows details the port’s operations, financial performance before and after privatisation, its medium-term growth prospects, a comprehensive valuation model, and the headline-grabbing share-purchase battle between an international fund and a billionaire Russian oligarch.
2. Description of the port:
Situated on the north‑western shore of the Thermaic Gulf, the Port of Thessaloniki (ThPA S.A.) is Greece’s second‑largest seaport after Piraeus and the principal maritime gateway for northern Greece and the wider South‑East European region. Embedded in the urban fabric of Thessaloniki, the country’s second‑largest city, with a metropolitan population of roughly one million, the port occupies a strategic location just 1 km from the central railway station and about 16 km from Thessaloniki "Macedonia" International Airport.
Since its foundation in 315 BC, the port has linked Greece to the Balkans, Central Europe, Asia Minor and the greater Mediterranean. Today it operates modern container, bulk‑cargo and passenger terminals that handle the lion’s share of northern Greece’s imports and exports, the majority of North Macedonia’s seaborne trade, and significant volumes for southern Bulgaria and Serbia. In 2011, for example, 2.13 million t of a total 4.60 million t of dry and general cargo were either destined for, or originated in, North Macedonia.
The Thessaloniki Port is the only port in Greece with direct access to the railroad which makes it an incredibly good port to transport cargos into eastern Europe, eastern Europe is forecasted to grow over 2-2.5% over the coming years much higher than the rest of Europe, which will likely fuel the organic growth and increased capacity of the port repositioning itself as the primary port for Eastern Europe.
There on yellow you can see the location of the City of Thessaloniki.
