Fintech at 2x EV/EBITDA, 15% Growth: Positioned for Multibagger Returns
A$38B in Payment Volume, Trading at a Fraction of Peers: The OFX Mismatch
Today, I’m sharing with you a fintech company trading at just 2x EV/EBITDA. Yes, you heard that right. It converts over 90% of EBITDA into cash flow, runs at 27% EBITDA margins, holds a third of its market cap in net cash, and—after a temporary investment cycle—is guiding for a return to 15% growth with 30% EBITDA margins.
So why is this company so incredibly cheap? Let me explain. Its share price is suffering from what I call the "uncertainty-perceived-as-risk paradox."
This is a business operating in the high-growth, highly competitive FX payments sector. It targets large personal transactions and SMEs—positioned between Wise and Alpha Group—offering both great pricing and specialist support. Over the last decade, it has grown steadily, improved its margins, and executed well.
But right now, two uncertainties have collided to create a lollapalooza effect.
First, macroeconomic volatility (e.g. tariffs) is pressuring SMEs and causing market-wide caution. Second, the company is undergoing a deep transition—investing heavily into its new client platform while suspending forward guidance. These factors have triggered an overreaction, leading the market to assume that today's OPEX levels are permanent. As a result, the company is trading at a valuation that makes no long-term sense.
Despite being a small cap, it has a large free float and sufficient daily liquidity. If you or your fund manage under $100 million, you’ll have no problem building a position.
Management is top-tier. They own 6% of the company, have clear alignment through long-term RSUs and options tied to performance between FY25–FY28, and continue to allocate capital with discipline. They've done buybacks in the past, but right now they’re doing the right thing—prioritizing the health and future of the business by investing into a platform that will expand the company’s value proposition and improve its competitive edge. Early client feedback on the new platform has been positive.
Insiders and institutions are buying aggressively, with the stock now trading under $0.75, down from $2.80 just a few years ago. The market is getting this one spectacularly wrong.
There’s no coverage—no deep dives, no broker research, and no retail noise. So I’ve done the work: I’ve compiled everything—history, business model, customer reviews, competitive positioning, financials, valuation scenarios, and catalysts—into this 20 page report, with the usual standard of quality.
I’m genuinely excited about this company. Its peers trade at 12–20x EV/EBITDA, and that multiple re-rating alone—combined with organic growth—could deliver multibagger returns, with minimal downside at this rock-bottom valuation.
1. Introduction
OFX Group Limited (formerly OzForex) is an Australian financial technology company specializing in international payments and foreign exchange services. The company is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). With a market capitalization of A$174 million and an enterprise value (EV) just under A$100 million, the company appears extremely cheap by virtually every valuation metric.
Founded in 1998, OFX operates a global online platform that enables individuals—such as expatriates and migrants—and businesses to transfer money across borders at competitive rates, avoiding hefty bank fees. It provides foreign exchange (FX) and payment solutions in over 50 currencies, serving consumers, small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs), online sellers, and larger enterprise clients through eight offices worldwide. The company is particularly focused on high-value clients and SMEs, offering personalized guidance for managing significant international transactions.
OFX operates through three core segments—Consumer, Corporate, and Enterprise. It currently processes A$38.1 billion in payment turnover and generates A$214.9 million in net operating income (NOI). With gross margins exceeding 90%, the company benefits from substantial operational leverage, which is expected to become more visible as growth resumes.
With annual EBITDA of A$57.7 million and a strong net cash position, OFX is trading at what can only be described as an unjustifiably low valuation. This disconnect is primarily driven by market skepticism surrounding the company’s ability to successfully execute its platform upgrade and growth strategy.
(All figures are in Australian dollars.)